Thursday was nice and today looks to be even better, so get out and enjoy today if you can! A STRONG COLD FRONT will move in on Saturday morning and bring us some COLDER weather for the weekend. This cold front will also bring us some rain showers and storms that eventually change over to sleet, and then change over to snow by later Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening!
This morning we are starting off in the 40's, with some patchy clouds here and there. We will see a mixture of sun & clouds as we go through the day today but temperatures will be warm, with highs ending up in the upper 60's and lower 70's!
Later tonight a cold front will start to push in from the west. As this cold front gets closer to us we will see increasing and thickening clouds later today, as well as a small chance for some evening/overnight storms.
Saturday is going to be a NASTY day, with widespread rain showers and some storms expected. A few of those storms could be severe early Saturday, but the severe weather threat with this system is looking fairly low.
We likely won't see any widespread severe storms with this cold front, but one thing we will be dealing with will be some falling temperatures on our Saturday! Just before the cold front moves through we will be holding in the low to middle 40's. Just after the cold front moves through (between 9 AM and 12 PM) the 40's will quickly fall off into the 30's!
With the temperatures getting gradually colder as we go through the day tomorrow we will have to be on the lookout for rain that changes over to sleet and then eventually snow! The change over from rain to sleet will come later in the afternoon, with the change over from sleet to snow coming in the early evening hours. Once we change over to snow completely we will see it continue for Saturday evening and a good part of Sunday, before everything wraps up early Sunday evening.
In terms of total snow accumulations we could be looking at anywhere from 1 to 7 inches around the area! The highest snow totals will be in southwest MO, northeast OK and in Benton and Carroll counties, where 3 to 7 inches of snow will be possible. For the rest of northwest AR about 2 to 5 inches of snow will be possible, while Ft. Smith and points southward can expect around 1 to 2 inches of snow.
Temperatures during this winter weather event are going to be CRITICAL for us, as well as the track of this system. Right now the track of the system is suggesting that the heaviest snow will be in southwest MO, southeast KS, northeast OK and extreme northwest AR. If that track shifts just a little further south then more of northwest AR will see higher snow amounts. Stay tuned!
As for those temperatures, they look to bottom out in the upper 20's on Saturday night. Typically when the temperature hits 27 or lower we see issues on the area roads. What this suggests is that MOST of the snow will stick to things like your house, the car and your yard, but not really stick to the roads. This doesn't mean that we won't have any road issues on Saturday night or Sunday, but most of the roads should stay wet, with some issues possibly developing on the bridges and overpasses. Keep in mind that if Saturday night's low gets just a degree or two lower we would be looking at major road issues around the area, so lets hope we don't get any colder than what we are currently forecasting.
After this storm system gets out of here later Sunday the COLDER weather looks like it will hang around through Monday, before some warmer weather returns on Tuesday. With that warmer weather returning next week we can expect a quick melt off of any snow that we do end up getting this weekend.
Heading into Wednesday and Thursday it looks like some clouds and rain/storm chances will make a return to the forecast. Those rain/storm chances will come as a low pressure system moves in from the west.
Talk about some CRAZY weather! Spring by the way officially starts for us on Saturday at 12:32 PM. With the way this winter has been for us, I guess it would only be appropriate that we have a sleet/snow chance in the forecast for that first official day and night of spring!
Again, most of the snow we get is not expected to stick to the roads too much, but that could change between now and Saturday. It all depends on the timing and track of this system, so make sure you keep checking back for updates! At least that winter weather is still a day or so away, so get out and make the most of your Friday! Have a good day! – Jason Dollard