The severe weather risk for Veterans Day afternoon into the evening is low with the potential to be upgraded to medium.
The setup: We've had our sights set on a VERY LARGE storm system for the last several days, which is just now starting to affect the west coast of the US. This is still 3 days from no
w and a lot can change, but I believe it deserves an update. A very large dip in the jet stream is starting to translate eastward onto the west coast and in response to this... a strong low pressure system is developing in advance of this large system. This is the reason it is going to be so windy the next 3 days. The strong south wind is going to pump moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Southern Plains/Midsouth, which will bring heavy rain and strong thunderstorms into the area on Sunday afternoon into the early evening as a strong cold front lifts that moisture. Finally, the low-level winds are going to be REALLY STRONG, which could lead to the development of a few tornadoes if a few questionable ingredients come together.
The threats: Right now the main threat with the storms we experience on Sunday PM will be damaging winds. BUT if we see sunshine during Sunday afternoon and warm into the mid to upper 70s... WATCH OUT! I personally believe it is going to be really cloudy nearly all day Sunday, which will keep temperatures down in the 60s lessening the tornado risk. BUT... even with the cloud cover, the low level wind shear is VERY FAVORABLE for the development of tornadoes if the storms are isolated (not an organized line) and move in an easterly direction. The current expected storm motion will be the NE around 35 to 50 mph, so they will need to right turn if they are going to line up with the shear vector and produce tornadoes. Right now the instability that is forecasted appears to be rather limited (200 to 500 J/kg), but if that changes we could be looking at a significant severe weather event for our area. Word of caution: The computer models can underestimate the CAPE 2 to 3 days out.
The timing: The wind will be howling all weekend, but we won't get any heavy rain until Sunday afternoon into the early evening. Timing can always change, but I believe the solid line of storms moves in around 3 PM Sunday and moves out of the viewing area around 6 PM (+/- 3 hours). I don't see any snow falling with this system for our area, but the snowfall early Monday morning could be as close as SC & SE MO.
Keep it here with NWA Weather Authority for the latest.