If Bing Crosby had been a meteorologist and a crooner, he might have been predicting, not just dreaming of a White Christmas in Arkansas this year.
Two weather models are predicting snow accumulation in the Natural State on Christmas Day. Such an instance is extremely rare. In fact, the last time it snowed more than a trace on Christmas Day was 86 years ago!
"While the laws of probability and statistics are usually against a white Christmas here in Arkansas, sometimes you have to put aside those rules. We're in a weather pattern now that's becoming rather active over North America and one that's transitioning to a colder trend as well," said Meterologist Steve Adamson.
"At this point, the computer models are continuing to suggest that this next weather system arriving on Christmas is looking more likely to turn into a snow event after starting as rain," Adamson said.
According to collected record reports, snow has fallen just 11 times on Christmas Days since 1875. In three other years, no snow fell but there was already snow on the ground. Going by the averages, there is snow in the air or covering the ground on Christmas about once every nine to ten years. It is much more rare to have snow start on Christmas and accumulate (more than a trace on the ground) before the end of the day. That has not happened locally since 1926.
"I have always bought into the idea that Mother Nature trys to 'balance the books' when it comes to weather," Adamson said. "After a summer of extreme heat and drought, what would be more fitting than ending the year with a rare event?
A white Christmas may just be Mother Nature's way of trying to balance things out from all that high summer heat and dryness."
Stay with KNWA, Your Weather Authority for all you need to know about this week's snow possibilities.